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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd