🔗 Share this article

It was two months in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the source for Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six matches, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have piled up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the player he was during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.