A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
